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With the resounding victory of Evgeny Tomashevsky in the FIDE Grand Prix Tbilisi, three of the four tournaments in the current series are complete. But how are the overall standings? Who are the favourites? We explore the situation...
As we see, after his clear first place finish in Tbilisi, Tomashevsky now ranks as the interim leader of the entire Grand Prix series, and he will have the opportunity to add even more points to his tally in the last leg in Khanty-Mansiysk from 13-27 May.
Although Mamedyarov is in second place on the current the standings, he has already completed three tournaments and is therefore certain to be surpassed by players who play in Khanty-Mansiysk.
The fight will be between Caruana (22 points behind) and Nakamura (45 points back, and 23 behind Caruana). Further afield are Gelfand and Jakovenko, although with the scoring system many players still have a mathematical chance!
In each tournament, points are distributed as follows:
Remember that in case of a tie score in any tournament, the points are distributed equally. We see that a clear first place finish counts for a lot!
If Tomashevsky can finish better than third in the final leg, he'll be assured a spot in the Candidates tournament, which will determine the next challenger to World Champion Magnus Carlsen in 2016. Even if he manages to do so, Nakamura can pass him if the American finishes clear first, as can Caruana with a clear second place finish, but the top two overall scorers will advance to the Candidates. Anyone who does not qualify would have to earn their spot on rating, or by reaching the finals of the World Cup later this year.
Khanty-Mansiysk will host the strongest field in terms of average Elo of the four tournaments, with the participation of Grischuk, Giri, Vachier-Lagrave. So, who knows what can happen?
Odds are Tomashevsky's momentum will carry him through leaving one other place. A Nakamura win doesn't seem all that unlikely; he's had a good run of form lately.
See also:
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