Magnus Carlsen seconds Jan Gustafsson, Laurent Fressinet and Peter Heine Nielsen made their FIDE Candidates Tournament predictions in a one-and-a-half-hour podcast earlier this week. They assessed Ding Liren, Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja and co. on current form, motivation, chances to win and openings, and also looked at the big questions: which winner would Magnus agree to play in a match, and who’s the biggest chicken?
The Candidates Tournament starts this Friday in Madrid at 15:00 CEST and you can find all the details in our FIDE Candidates Preview. We’ll have live commentary, with video from the player hall, from Judit Polgar and Jan Gustafsson.
In the run-up to the event, Jan was joined by his fellow Team Magnus members Laurent Fressinet and Peter Heine Nielsen for a special edition of the Chicken Chess Club podcast. You can listen below, or wherever it is you usually listen to your podcasts.
Each “chicken” ranked the players on a scale of 1-5 for a series of categories, and we’ve tabulated their results — at least as far as possible, since our experts didn’t always remember to actually give their score!
Let’s take a quick look at how things went, category by category.
Ding (13), Duda & Nakamura (11), Caruana (9), Rapport, Nepo & Firouzja (8), Radjabov (1)
Ding Liren was perhaps a surprise winner here, since he’s barely played classical chess since the pandemic began, but our hosts were impressed with Ding’s feat of playing 28 games in 28 days to be eligible for the tournament. Laurent, who gave 5/5, described it as “out of this world” for Ding to play every day and still perform at a 2850 level.
On the other end of the scale we have Teimour Radjabov, who had lost three classical games and won none in Norway Chess at the time the episode was recorded. Here's Laurent, again:
It’s just a disaster! He’s over-thinking every decision, playing some really bad games, and in Armageddon yesterday, against Vishy, he just blundered some quite simple tactic. Everything is going wrong.
Teimour Radjabov had last played in November in the European Team Championship, which echoed his approach to the 2013 Candidates, when he entered with a 2793 rating and then dropped almost 50 rating points with a -6 score. This time, at least, he’s returned to playing before the tournament and may have time to readjust before the real action begins.
Meanwhile Jan-Krzysztof Duda (who won the Warsaw Superbet Rapid and Blitz and the Oslo Esports Cup) and Hikaru Nakamura (who made a triumphant return to classical chess in the Grand Prix) are the other players who have impressed recently.
Ding (15), Duda & Firouzja (14), Caruana (13), Nakamura (12), Nepo (8), Rapport (6), Radjabov (5)
Everyone agreed that Ding Liren’s path to the Candidates spoke to his motivation, while Laurent Fressinet wanted to score Alireza Firouzja a 6/5, but there were some interesting debates elsewhere. Hikaru Nakamura got 5/5 from Jan, who commented:
I would think it’s such a great story for him. He retires for two years, becomes a big Twitch streamer, then he qualifies for the Candidates when many people thought he was finished as a classical chess player, and now to be in the Candidates and to potentially win it and get a match vs. Magnus. What’s a better driver for him? I think he’ll be extremely motivated.
Hikaru arrived in Spain early
Laurent gave 4/5, questioning whether Hikaru wouldn’t have split motivation between becoming World Champion and his streaming, while Peter gave a 3.
Rapport raised questions, with his post-game interviews often expressing a reluctance to play chess. Laurent cautioned, however:
If you listen to his interviews you think he’s 2650 at best, but he’s a very, very strong player, so we should be careful with his interviews!
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi be motivated to “do a Vishy” and qualify again for a match immediately after losing to Magnus? Jan pointed out one potential factor, of which more later:
If there’s no Magnus waiting as the end boss it raises his chances to become World Champion!
Caruana (14), Nepo (12), Ding (11), Firouzja (10), Duda (9), Radjabov & Nakamura (7), Rapport (6)
Here there was a clear leader, with our chickens agreeing that Fabiano Caruana has the more flexible opening repertoire. As Jan put it:
That makes him special, that he’s completely unpredictable. With White he can do anything. And he’s maybe the only one you can see just winning a game with prep.
Ian Nepomniachtchi provoked some debate, with Laurent giving 5/5 on account of the work done for the World Championship match, though Peter gave only a 3/5, commenting that Nepo’s openings were, “pretty good, but mainly in a defensive way”.
In general it was a category where none of the players were considered especially weak, with our hosts pointing out that Richard Rapport and Jan-Krzysztof Duda in particular had made big strides forward. It’s noteworthy that Grzegorz Gajewski, a long time second of Vishy Anand, has been working with Jan-Krzysztof in the run-up to the event.
Ding (14), Caruana (12), Firouzja (11), Nepo (6), Duda & Nakamura (5), Rapport (4), Radjabov (0)
This is perhaps the key category and the only one in which a player scored zero, with Peter Heine Nielsen saying of Teimour Radjabov’s 0/5 from all three commentators:
It’s somewhat insulting, but I think that’s where we are. I don’t expect him to be last in the tournament, but somehow that he’s going to push to win, I don’t see it.
All of the other players were considered as being in with some chance, with Ian Nepomniachtchi scored down due to the suspicion that he’ll struggle during a long tournament — “many ways to collapse and get angry at himself!” (Fressinet). It was felt the pandemic splitting the 2020/1 Candidates in two worked hugely in Nepo’s favour.
When it comes to the most likely winners there are three players with little to separate them. Alireza Firouzja is bidding to follow in the footsteps of the likes of Garry Kasparov and Magnus Carlsen and win the Candidates at his first attempt. Previous winner Fabiano Caruana got 4/5 from all three experts, with Peter summing up, “he’s more or less the full package”. The favourite, however, is Chinese no. 1 and the highest-rated player in the event, Ding Liren.
Laurent feels the last-minute chance to play (after Sergey Karjakin was banned) is an important factor.
He got this unexpected chance and I think from a psychological point of view it’s just a free roll, he gets this boost of energy.
Peter, meanwhile, had another explanation.
For me he’s the favourite, and it’s very simple — I think he’s the best player. Caruana might be the best sporting character, but Caruana’s a few percent behind.
We’ve tabulated the results below, including the total of the scores in the four categories above.
The remaining two categories don’t relate so directly to the chances of winning the tournament, but at least the first may be very important for chess history!
Firouzja (14), Ding (10), Nakamura (9), Duda (8), Caruana (7), Rapport (5), Radjabov (4), Nepo (3)
If Alireza Firouzja wins the chances of a Carlsen-Firouzja showdown are high, but if he doesn't... | photo: Stev Bonhage, FIDE
The most unusual backdrop to the current Candidates Tournament is that it’s far from clear if the winner of the tournament will get the one prize everyone is ostensibly fighting for: a World Championship match against Magnus Carlsen. Magnus stated shortly after winning his 5th match in Dubai that he may not play another.
I found that the negative has started to outweigh the positive, even when winning. I have by now played against the previous generation and three leading players of my generation. Being result-oriented has worked out for me in these matches, but it doesn’t feel sustainable long term. Passion must be the main driver. It is unlikely that I will play another match unless maybe if the next challenger represents the next generation. (Alireza Firouzja is at 18 already ranked 2nd in classical chess and has qualified for the next Candidates.)
If that happened we’ll have some unemployed chickens, but more importantly we’ll get the curious situation that the winner of the Candidates will be able to play a match against the 2nd placed player in the tournament.
That’s only if Magnus pulls out, however, and who wins the Candidates may have a big influence there. As you can see from the quote, it’s highly likely Magnus will play Alireza Firouzja if the youngster makes it, since Magnus singled out his young colleague. It’s also highly unlikely he would play Ian Nepomniachtchi, after just winning a match against the Russian.
Between those poles it’s all guesswork, with the chances higher for a new opponent, and a younger opponent, while for instance in the case of Ding Liren it was felt that, “Ding is so polite so you don’t feel like being unpolite to him!”
There was some disagreement over Fabiano Caruana. Laurent felt Magnus had something to prove after making 12 draws in the 2018 match against a player he’s rated as his closest rival.
Magnus might be tempted to show that he can do better!
Jan disagreed, however.
That stands exactly for what Magnus dislikes about World Championship matches — preparing against a super-solid repertoire.
Peter agreed with Jan that it was more a case of “been there, done that”.
The other interesting case is that of Hikaru Nakamura. Magnus has a staggering 14 wins to 1 record in classical chess against Hikaru, and Hikaru is from a slightly older generation, but on the other hand, as Jan put it:
If Hikaru wins there’s zero chance of Magnus not playing the match. It’s too much fun! Sauron returning to keep Frodo down. It’s going to happen!
Perhaps the most curious case is that of Richard Rapport, a player who during what was for him a triumphant FIDE Grand Prix series, said that he regretted choosing chess as a career. Jan, responding to Laurent and Peter suggesting Magnus might not be too interested in facing Richard, commented:
I think you guys are right, but Magnus would be happy to play! Richie would just say, “nah, it’s too much stress, I need a break. Maybe next time!”
Radjabov (14), Nepo (6), Nakamura & Rapport (5), Firouzja (4), Duda & Ding (3), Caruana (2)
Last, but arguably not least, we have “chickenness”, the tendency of players to choose draws and a minimum of pain at the chessboard, even if it harms their chances of sporting success. With Wesley So and Anish Giri not qualified for the event, Teimour Radjabov won by a country mile.
Fabiano Caruana, here at the opening press conference, is definitely not a chicken! | photo: Stev Bonhage, FIDE
Elsewhere there’s a distinct lack of chickens, though that’s not necessarily only a good thing. As Peter put it when giving Jan-Krzysztof Duda 2/5:
I would probably say that one should see 2 as a compliment! I feel that is sort of the sweet spot. Being a chicken is not only bad, you also need to have some kind of realism, and I think he’s done that with openings, playing more healthy openings. 1.5 is the chicken factor you should aim for as a competitive player.
Firouzja, Duda, Ding Liren and Caruana all come in under that mark (4.5/15), with Laurent saying of Fabi:
I think he’s overpushing, the same as Duda, overpressing all the time, taking some crazy risks to try and win games.
Hikaru’s 5 was perhaps more towards the chicken side than you might expect, but Laurent had a justification for his 1/5:
If we do a video series or Chessable course someday about a chicken repertoire, we just copy/paste Naka’s repertoire and it’s done!
So those are the predictions and views of the Chicken Chess Club podcast team, but do you agree? Let us know in the comments below!
Then get your popcorn ready for the FIDE Candidates Tournament, that kicks off at 15:00 CEST this Friday, June 17.
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